by ferrarilover » 06 Nov 2013, 16:17
One thing strikes me about this match. It's a Cup game, so league form etc is meaningless, but since that's all we've to go on, that's what I'll use.
Rochdale, for all their impressive league standing (4th, no less), they really don't seem to be there by any real swagger. In their last 10 games, they've played the bottom 4, seven of the bottom 10 and no team higher than 10th. Of those, they have won seven and lost three. The real kicker is that they've beaten the bottom four by a single goal apiece. Bury 1-0, TUFC 1-0, Accrington 2-1 and Northampton 3-2. They had single goal victories against Wycombe and Cheltenham too. So, while they've got the knack of grinding out wins, the scores suggest that, perhaps, they're a bit like us a couple of years ago. Scoring more goals than the oppo, but perhaps without actually being the better team.
The timing of the goals is a factor here too. Yeah, a match lasts for 90 minutes and all that, but Rochdale earned their victories against Northants with two goals in the last 2 minutes. They did similar against Chelts, with their two goals coming in the last 8 minutes (both of these games included a goal beyond the regulation 90).
I accept that a win is a win (particularly true of Cup football), but there's winning and there's winning. Winning, as Rochdale have done so far (and as we did way back when) relies on many more variables going your way than winning in style does and that is always a gamble. A win by a single goal very easily turns into a draw by the awarding of a penalty or a little bit of individual brilliance or a mishit cross or a fumble or a slip or anything. A 4-0 victory is not so easily undone.
Say just three of those single goal wins turns out as draws (if I remember correctly, that would have been a fair result in our match, and that's what we would have got, but for a Krystian Pearce slip). Suddenly, "high flying" Rochdale become "twentieth place and looking over their shoulders" Rochdale and this match looks a whole lot closer than it does right now.
I could be wrong, of course. Rochdale could be the supreme masters of Division 4 and they might be desperately unlucky to only be in 4th and not top by 10 points. They might have been robbed of half a dozen goals each week by wholly inept refereeing, or the performance of a lifetime from the opposition goalkeeper. I simply don't see enough of Rochdale to know. However, on the face of it, a couple of spoony late wins against the relative rubbish in the division does not necessarily strike me as the sort of "away banker" that this fixture may look on the surface.
Matt.
One thing strikes me about this match. It's a Cup game, so league form etc is meaningless, but since that's all we've to go on, that's what I'll use.
Rochdale, for all their impressive league standing (4th, no less), they really don't seem to be there by any real swagger. In their last 10 games, they've played the bottom 4, seven of the bottom 10 and no team higher than 10th. Of those, they have won seven and lost three. The real kicker is that they've beaten the bottom four by a single goal apiece. Bury 1-0, TUFC 1-0, Accrington 2-1 and Northampton 3-2. They had single goal victories against Wycombe and Cheltenham too. So, while they've got the knack of grinding out wins, the scores suggest that, perhaps, they're a bit like us a couple of years ago. Scoring more goals than the oppo, but perhaps without actually being the better team.
The timing of the goals is a factor here too. Yeah, a match lasts for 90 minutes and all that, but Rochdale earned their victories against Northants with two goals in the last 2 minutes. They did similar against Chelts, with their two goals coming in the last 8 minutes (both of these games included a goal beyond the regulation 90).
I accept that a win is a win (particularly true of Cup football), but there's winning and there's winning. Winning, as Rochdale have done so far (and as we did way back when) relies on many more variables going your way than winning in style does and that is always a gamble. A win by a single goal very easily turns into a draw by the awarding of a penalty or a little bit of individual brilliance or a mishit cross or a fumble or a slip or anything. A 4-0 victory is not so easily undone.
Say just three of those single goal wins turns out as draws (if I remember correctly, that would have been a fair result in our match, and that's what we would have got, but for a Krystian Pearce slip). Suddenly, "high flying" Rochdale become "twentieth place and looking over their shoulders" Rochdale and this match looks a whole lot closer than it does right now.
I could be wrong, of course. Rochdale could be the supreme masters of Division 4 and they might be desperately unlucky to only be in 4th and not top by 10 points. They might have been robbed of half a dozen goals each week by wholly inept refereeing, or the performance of a lifetime from the opposition goalkeeper. I simply don't see enough of Rochdale to know. However, on the face of it, a couple of spoony late wins against the relative rubbish in the division does not necessarily strike me as the sort of "away banker" that this fixture may look on the surface.
Matt.
