Interesting Stats - Why we shouldn't be afraid of anyone!

[basil75]

If you look at the table that only shows how the top half teams perform against each other, we actually do extremely well:

P W D L F A GD TOT
Bury 16 8 5 3 26 18 8 29
Chesterfield 16 8 5 3 27 20 7 29
Crewe 19 7 5 7 32 27 5 26
Torquay 17 6 7 4 31 22 9 25
Gillingham 20 5 10 5 23 22 1 25
Southend 18 6 6 6 22 24 -2 24
Oxford 16 6 4 6 19 20 -1 22
Port Vale 17 6 4 7 19 26 -7 22
Wycombe 16 6 3 7 20 24 -4 21
Stevenage 18 4 8 6 14 17 -3 20
Rotherham 18 5 4 9 21 23 -2 19
Shrewsbury 19 4 7 8 17 28 -11 19

Notice how our goal difference is now the best and how we've got 25 points from teams in the top half in 17 games and only 26 points from teams in the bottom half after playing an extra game - we've actually lost fewer games to top half sides than to sides in the bottom half as it stands.

It gets better if we break it down into home and away performance

HOME


P W D L F A GD TOT
Bury 8 5 2 1 15 8 7 17
Chesterfield 7 5 1 1 18 12 6 16
Gillingham 11 4 4 3 12 10 2 16
Crewe 10 4 3 3 16 10 6 15
Rotherham 8 4 2 2 16 9 7 14
Port Vale 9 4 2 3 10 10 0 14
Southend 10 4 2 4 14 17 -3 14
Torquay 8 3 3 2 18 12 6 12
Wycombe 9 3 3 3 8 9 -1 12
Shrewsbury 9 2 5 2 6 8 -2 11
Stevenage 9 1 7 1 8 7 1 10
Oxford 7 3 0 4 8 10 -2 9



AWAY

P W D L F A GD TOT
Torquay 9 3 4 2 13 10 3 13
Chesterfield 9 3 4 2 9 8 1 13
Oxford 9 3 4 2 11 10 1 13
Bury 8 3 3 2 11 10 1 12
Crewe 9 3 2 4 16 17 -1 11
Southend 8 2 4 2 8 7 1 10
Stevenage 9 3 1 5 6 10 -4 10
Gillingham 9 1 6 2 11 12 -1 9
Wycombe 7 3 0 4 12 15 -3 9
Port Vale 8 2 2 4 9 16 -7 8
Shrewsbury 10 2 2 6 11 20 -9 8
Rotherham 10 1 2 7 5 14 -9 5


We're the top performing team against the top sides away from home - who'd have thought it! Roll on Bury!

[bixieupnorth]

however, there is one reason why we should be afraid of random teams, namely the tactical genius who goes by the name of paul buckle!!

who knows what formation and tactics we'll put out for the bury game or any forthcoming matches?? its been shown that if we fly into teams we're succesful more often than not, but sit back and we'll invariably get punished, its not rocket science!

[northharrowgull]

Very interesting post which if I read it correctly means Tuesday's match should be a real cracker. The top performing home team (against top half teams) against the top performing away side

[bixieupnorth]

0-0!!

[Jeff]

0-0!!

I'd probably take that, definately a point gained if we manage it.

Interesting that the Football League Show etc make a big(ish) deal about Bury being poor at home, when they have only lost 3 games. They've drawn 7 though, which suggests that might be the favourite result.

[bixieupnorth]

10/1 for no goals, not many prices out yet but 5/2 for away win looks very good to me, would want to see the team before i bet tho

[ferrarilover]

Hmmm, very nice but...

Stats are often very misleading and not really representative of real life.

Having a look on the Shrewsbury forum this morning, one guy posted in the 'Jake Robinson' thread that, 'he's only scored twice, against rubbish sides, and he's been subbed off in every game he has played for Torquay.'
Not ABSOLUTELY accurate, but much, much more tellingly is that, while it's 99% true, is not even close to representing how good Robbo has been for us.

It is curious also to note that Shrewsbury have also noticed their anomalous form against their immediate rivals.

For me, if anything, these stars represent the embodiment of my argument that L2 football is considerably more exciting that the Premier League, because anyone is capable of beating anyone. Of course, there are weaker sides and better sides, but no one is totally dominant, which is nice.

Matt.

[Fletch]

Hmmm, very nice but...

Stats are often very misleading and not really representative of real life.

Having a look on the Shrewsbury forum this morning, one guy posted in the 'Jake Robinson' thread that, 'he's only scored twice, against rubbish sides, and he's been subbed off in every game he has played for Torquay.'
Not ABSOLUTELY accurate, but much, much more tellingly is that, while it's 99% true, is not even close to representing how good Robbo has been for us.

It is curious also to note that Shrewsbury have also noticed their anomalous form against their immediate rivals.

For me, if anything, these stars represent the embodiment of my argument that L2 football is considerably more exciting that the Premier League, because anyone is capable of beating anyone. Of course, there are weaker sides and better sides, but no one is totally dominant, which is nice.

Matt.

Presumably thats the two he scored against Shrewsbury and Shrewsbury then?

[ferrarilover]

With the notable exception of the goals he scored yesterday, he got them against Cheltenham and someone else not especially good. But yes, I take your point, he does now have 4 in 8(?) games for us, not bad for a freebie.

Matt.

[Fletch]

With the notable exception of the goals he scored yesterday, he got them against Cheltenham and someone else not especially good. But yes, I take your point, he does now have 4 in 8(?) games for us, not bad for a freebie.
Matt.

Hereford, Cheltenham & Stevenage to be accurate. With yesterdays 2, thats 5 in 11?

[basil75]

I think this highlights a problem - why do we struggle against the lower mid table, mediocre sides? - this is where the most points are lost.

6 of our 13 wins are against top 12 sides
Out of the 7 remaining - 3 are against the bottom 3, and 3 of them where at the very start of the season against Northampton and Bradford (who were considered big title contenders at the time) and Lincoln who were perceived dark horses for promotion at the time. We also had the motivation to keep the run going in these games.

So we've just won 1 game against perceived mediocre sides in the division. This suggests there's a motivation issue against these sides. Our biggest defeats have been against Morecambe, Macclesfield and Hereford. Aldershot are the only team to have done the double over us.

[Un_hang_able]

Our team as a unit play better against the top or bigger teams because of motivational issues on many levels. Including the motivation of each individual in the team. That is to say, they are more motivated, because they may catch the eye, which at some point may lead to a move in their respective career. Footballers are always looking for the next potential move. Well the vast majority are anyway. Modern football is overwhelmingly a business and market place afterall.

....or am I being an unfair cinic l?

[Fletch]

Bas, I dont think its got bugger all to do with motivation. When we get teams coming to Plainmoor (I wont comment on away games cos I dont get to many) who play a more open attacking brand of football, (or are particularly crap) then we tend to beat them. Its when we get teams that come here looking to pack the midfield and stop us playing, hoping to catch us on the break and nick the points, that we have a problem breaking them down. I also think that, as several people have commented at various times, apart from a few very poor teams, and a few teams that look pretty good, the rest of the division is pretty close run with anyone capable of beating the other teams above and below them.
Without bothering to trawl through the tables and fixture list, havnt we still got half a dozen matches or so to play against the bottom half teams? Wins against them will paint a somewhat different picture...

[ferrarilover]

I agree entirely with Fletch. I think it has considerably more to do with the manner of the opposition than anything with our players. Ok, there have been one or two utterly abject performances this season (Shots away), but on the whole, we have had a pretty good go at most teams and we haven't taking a real beating yet this season, our heaviest defeat being 3-1 at home to Hereford/Macclesfield, hardly a disgraceful scoreline (if not against quality opposition, with respect to Hereford and Macclesfield).

As for the idea that the players are up for it because they can catch the eye, I'm not sure how much of a step up it is to go from us to anyone else in the division. Obviously AC Northampton are a Premier League side with a decent chance of the Champions League next year, but other than that, while accepting that other sides here in L2 have historically been much bigger than us, they are in L2 on merit and the standard of football is reflected in that. Bradford used to be the biggest culprits, 'we get 10,000/week' they would insidiously whinge. 'But you're in L2 and you're a long way down, no-one cares' came the retort. Silence, came the reply.

Anyway, this matchday thread ain't gonna write itself.

Matt.

[Fletch]

I almost thought you were going to get a post up without mentioning those galacticos also known as "Real Cobblers" in it. How misguided of me