Survival: Could we do it?

Post by **SuperNickyWroe** » 23 Feb 2018, 10:50

United62 wrote: 23 Feb 2018, 10:31 Have a look at what we're going to 'enjoy' next season..... ladies and gents, I give you Billericay Town

https://x.com/KentishFootie/status/965707833361747971

Someone stated at the Maidenhead game 'how has it come to this?' (meaning the state of some of the grounds we're now playing at).... wait till next year, it will be an eye-opener for most!

don't think we will be going there TBH....
they will be passing us on the way up.....

westyorkshiregull · Post by **westyorkshiregull** » 23 Feb 2018, 10:57

Don't worry it's just a rung of the ladder it's all in hand

United62 · Post by **United62** » 23 Feb 2018, 11:01

SuperNickyWroe wrote: 23 Feb 2018, 10:50 don't think we will be going there TBH....
they will be passing us on the way up.....

As they currently play in the Isthmian League and we are currently in the NL, I'm pretty sure we'll be meeting in NLS next season.

Post by **SuperNickyWroe** » 23 Feb 2018, 11:10

United62 wrote: 23 Feb 2018, 11:01 As they currently play in the Isthmian League and we are currently in the NL, I'm pretty sure we'll be meeting in NLS next season.

sorry mate you're right..... :Oops:
another team to beat us then!!!

Neal · Post by **Neal** » 23 Feb 2018, 13:04

Club Statement May 2018

We as a club, the management, players and staff are gutted at being relegated to Conference South. A run of bad luck, injuries and legacy contributed to this devastating relegation.

But the Management and board are committed to giving the manager the resources to build a team that will be challenging for promotion back to the NL.

The infrastructure of the club is in a much better state with the youth setup we have put in place over the last 12 months.

The fans have been fantastic and we intend to build a successful club we can all be proud of.

lucy6lucy · Post by **lucy6lucy** » 23 Feb 2018, 19:53

Neal wrote: 23 Feb 2018, 13:04 Club Statement May 2018

We as a club, the management, players and staff are gutted at being relegated to Conference South. A run of bad luck, injuries and legacy contributed to this devastating relegation.

But the Management and board are committed to giving the manager the resources to build a team that will be challenging for promotion back to the NL.

The infrastructure of the club is in a much better state with the youth setup we have put in place over the last 12 months.

The fans have been fantastic and we intend to build a successful club we can all be proud of.

I reckon that this statement will be end of march not may

Major Pain · Post by **Major Pain** » 23 Feb 2018, 22:08

Neal regarding the club statement in May 2018, you forgot to include "we will arrange a fans forum in the near future" and "there will be a new board of directors with local representatives" lol.

nickbrod · Post by **nickbrod** » 24 Feb 2018, 08:59

In the infrastructure of the club don't forget to add in the "re-introduction of a reserve side."
Oh by the way what happened to our application to join?

madgull · Post by **madgull** » 10 Mar 2018, 21:47

Okay, bear with me here. Due to postponements etc the fixture list has changed a little, but let's look at where we are now versus my predictions.

A v Macclesfield (1st) 0 points predicted (1 gained)
H v Barrow (20th) 3 points predicted (3 gained)
A v Maidenhead (13th) 1 point predicted (3 gained)
H v Dagenham & R(10th) 1 point predicted (0 gained)
H v Sutton (3rd) 0 points predicted (0 gained)
A v Maidstone (14th) 1 point predicted (0 gained)

Predicted: 6
Gained: 7

Admittedly it doesn't feel that way right now (to be brutally honest, I'd put money on us going down now), BUT...we still have a chance, with games against:
Leyton Orient (15th), Working (16th), Halifax (17th), Hartlepool (19th) Solihull (21st), Chester (22nd), Guiseley (24th).

Plus tougher fixtures against:
Dover (6th), AFC Fylde (8th), Ebbsfleet United (9th).

Now, I've extrapolated each team's predicted points for the remainder of the season based on their form in the last five games. Yes, before anyone swoops in with the incredible revelation that teams' form will change, I KNOW, but it will even out and some teams will drop away as others re-surge. Here's what I came up with:

14. Halifax 58 points
15. Leyton Orient 57 points
16. Maidstone 50 points
17. Eastleigh 49 points
18. Solihull 49 points
19. Barrow 48 points
20. Hartlepool 48 points
21. Woking 45 points
22. Torquay 39 points
23. Chester 36 points
24. Guiseley 31 points

This supposes that we pick up 12 points from our remaining 10 fixtures. Whilst my 'route to survival' would see us pick up an eye-watering 24, if we beat each of the seven teams involved in the relegation battle and lost to the top teams, we would bring back 21 points, leaving us on 48 points (and that's generously assuming that us beating all of these teams wouldn't bring their points-per-game average down) and involved in a 3-way goal difference shootout with Hartlepool and Barrow , currently -13 and -7 respectively to our -29, but we can dream of a big win against Hartlepool and a few stuffings for them along the way...or Solihull's form in the past five being a flash in the pan. :Oops:

In short, we have possibly the best set of fixtures imaginable to allow us to mount a Great Escape. It is possible...but I'm losing faith every game.

Plainmoor78 · Post by **Plainmoor78** » 10 Mar 2018, 22:21

madgull wrote: 10 Mar 2018, 21:47

In short, we have possibly the best set of fixtures imaginable to allow us to mount a Great Escape. It is possible...but I'm losing faith every game.

We've just lost to a team that had gone 17 league games without a win. What exactly construes "best set of fixtures imaginable"?
Incidently two of those fixtures are against Woking and guisley. Sides who we have an appalling record against.

Rjc70 · Post by **Rjc70** » 11 Mar 2018, 02:30

Not a prayer. Not this time.

lucy6lucy · Post by **lucy6lucy** » 11 Mar 2018, 03:02

I'm more intrigued that 91 people still believe we will avoid relegation.

Modgull · Post by **Modgull** » 11 Mar 2018, 07:19

Presumably most of these voted in January when the poll opened. Can't imagine any of them still think so.

Yorkieandy · Post by **Yorkieandy** » 11 Mar 2018, 09:25

Interesting stuff madgull.

I posted in January on this thread that i believed a change of manager back then would have seen us given a chance at the very least, as opposed to absolutely no chance under Owers. I voted that way too. That didn't happen and the chance passed and was gone.

It's all well and good having fixtures against most of the bottom sides in the run in but for one, they too will also be fighting hard for points. They aren't just going to roll over and has as been proved on many occasions this season, this squad of players don't like getting their hands dirty never mind their boots.

For two, they can't even put in any semblance of a performance that shows desire, commitment, resilience and positivity against a side that have just got their first win in 18 games so all things considered, anyone who thinks he club can stay up should get down the bookies.

I'd be interested to find out the odds now of a Gulls survival with the bookies.

I can't find the price for survival but it's 100/1 ON for relegation and 66/1 ON to finish in the bottom 4 which is weird as both would mean the same thing.

goody2449 · Post by **goody2449** » 11 Mar 2018, 12:14

madgull wrote: 10 Mar 2018, 21:47 Okay, bear with me here. Due to postponements etc the fixture list has changed a little, but let's look at where we are now versus my predictions.

A v Macclesfield (1st) 0 points predicted (1 gained)
H v Barrow (20th) 3 points predicted (3 gained)
A v Maidenhead (13th) 1 point predicted (3 gained)
H v Dagenham & R(10th) 1 point predicted (0 gained)
H v Sutton (3rd) 0 points predicted (0 gained)
A v Maidstone (14th) 1 point predicted (0 gained)

Predicted: 6
Gained: 7

Admittedly it doesn't feel that way right now (to be brutally honest, I'd put money on us going down now), BUT...we still have a chance, with games against:
Leyton Orient (15th), Working (16th), Halifax (17th), Hartlepool (19th) Solihull (21st), Chester (22nd), Guiseley (24th).

Plus tougher fixtures against:
Dover (6th), AFC Fylde (8th), Ebbsfleet United (9th).

Now, I've extrapolated each team's predicted points for the remainder of the season based on their form in the last five games. Yes, before anyone swoops in with the incredible revelation that teams' form will change, I KNOW, but it will even out and some teams will drop away as others re-surge. Here's what I came up with:

14. Halifax 58 points
15. Leyton Orient 57 points
16. Maidstone 50 points
17. Eastleigh 49 points
18. Solihull 49 points
19. Barrow 48 points
20. Hartlepool 48 points
21. Woking 45 points
22. Torquay 39 points
23. Chester 36 points
24. Guiseley 31 points

This supposes that we pick up 12 points from our remaining 10 fixtures. Whilst my 'route to survival' would see us pick up an eye-watering 24, if we beat each of the seven teams involved in the relegation battle and lost to the top teams, we would bring back 21 points, leaving us on 48 points (and that's generously assuming that us beating all of these teams wouldn't bring their points-per-game average down) and involved in a 3-way goal difference shootout with Hartlepool and Barrow , currently -13 and -7 respectively to our -29, but we can dream of a big win against Hartlepool and a few stuffings for them along the way...or Solihull's form in the past five being a flash in the pan. :Oops:

In short, we have possibly the best set of fixtures imaginable to allow us to mount a Great Escape. It is possible...but I'm losing faith every game.

Great work Madgull, I for one admire your optimism. I just wanna see them fight a little bit until the end. I'm away, for 8 months in April, would like to come home to see TUFC in the top half of the table for once at least!

Torquay United Fans Forum