........and as we drop think about us being the only former English Football League club ever to have been in National South whereas in National North this season there are eight......York City, Kidderminster Harriers, Stockport County, Southport, Darlington, Bradford Park Avenue, Boston United and Gainsborough Trinity representing towns that formerly enjoyed that status.
Indeed, Louis. We're now a point behind my 'road to safety', and it's difficult to see us making that point up. I think that, even if we managed to pull off the rest of the results, that late equaliser for Solihull would prove to be crucial.
Where we stand on the 'Road to Safety', in case anyone was wondering:
A v Macclesfield (1st) 0 points predicted (1 gained) H v Barrow (20th) 3 points predicted (3 gained) A v Maidenhead (13th) 1 point predicted (3 gained) H v Dagenham & R(10th) 1 point predicted (0 gained) H v Sutton (3rd) 0 points predicted (0 gained) A v Maidstone (14th) 1 point predicted (0 gained) A v Leyton Orient (19th) 3 points predicted (3 gained) A v Solihull (21st) 3 points predicted (1 gained)
Predicted: 12
Gained: 11
H v Guiseley (24th) 3 points A v Chester (23rd) 3 points H v Woking (18th) 3 points A v Dover (7th) 1 point H v AFC Fylde (8th) 1 point H v Halifax (15th) 3 points A v Hartlepool (20th) 3 points H v Ebbsfleet (9th) 1 point
Originally Predicted: 18
I can only realistically see us getting 15 or 16 points from this run max now, and I don't think 46 points will be enough to survive if we go by my extrapolated table a few pages back. But then, a scraped draw against Dover, a loss against Fylde, then a mad last-day victory against Ebbsfleet (plus wins against the teams around us)? 50 points, and stranger things have happened to Torquay...
Let’s say against all odds we won the next three games, against clubs near the bottom, taking us to 40 points.
Solihull lose to Halifax (away), Aldershot (H) & Tranmere (A), which is possible. Leaving them on 39 points.
Hartlepool lose to Barrow (A), Bromley (H), Maidstone (A) & beat Guisely (H). Unlikely, but then they have 42 points.
When we play Dover, Hartlepool play Solihull.
If we got a point at Dover and Hartlepool didn’t beat Solihull, then if the above happens we’d be 2 or 3 points from safety (effectively 3 or 4 due to goal difference) with 4 games to play.
With two teams to catch we’d have to assume that at least one of them would win 2 of their last four games so we need a minimum of 9 points from our last 4.
So if other results went as well as we could have any expectation then we’d need at least 6 wins but 7 is far more likely (and it will look worse if Hartlepool get anything from Barrow tonight).
Obviously it’s extremely unlikely we’ll do that but at the moment in theory it is still possible.
We keep on getting ourselves into the position whereby a couple of good results sets us up for the chance to string 3 or 4 together and make some progress but every time we fail miserably. I can't see that changing now.
westyorkshiregull wrote: 21 Mar 2018, 20:10
Barrow winning one nil , watching the game in bt sport. Can't see much difference really what happens now but interesting game for these teams
