Eight games to go...

[Gullscorer]

...and we're still on course for promotion. Here are the matches we must play, followed by our promotion rivals' fixtures (excluding Swindon, who doubtless will finish top):

Torquay : H: Port Vale, Accrington, Southend, Crewe. . . . . . . . . . . A: Barnet, Oxford, Wimbledon, Hereford.
Shrews. : H: Port Vale, Aldershot, Bradford, Rotherham, Dagenham . A: Morecambe, Macclesfield, Accrington, Wimbledon.
Southend : H: Cheltenham, Wimbledon, Barnet, Macclesfield. . . . . . . A: Bristol Rovers, Bradford, Torquay, Oxford.
Crawley . : H: Rotherham, Crewe, Wimbledon, Northamptn, Hereford. A: Bradford, Burton, Barnet, Dagenham, Accrington.
Cheltnham: H: Oxford, Barnet, Accrington, Bradford . . . . . . . . . . . . A: Southend, Rotherham, Crewe, Plymouth.
Oxford . . . H: Morecambe, Torquay, Gillingham, Southend . . . . . . . A: Cheltnham, Accringtn, Nthamptn, Plymth, P. Vale.

We have a maximum of 32 (er, no.. 24) possible points to play for. If we win half our remaining games and draw two (er.. win 5 and draw 3?), certainly achievable, we will finish with 87 points, which should win us automatic promotion. If we beat Southend (or even if we don't), and they have been stumbling lately, then Shrewsbury and Crawley will be our closest contenders. I've no doubt that the Shrews will get one of the automatic places. Crawley have a few tricky local derbies, and two games in hand, home and away, which could put extra pressure on them, knowing they have to catch up.

But with the form and confidence the Gulls have shown in recent weeks and months, there's no reason why we cannot win all our remaining games, to make this season, surprisingly, one of the club's finest for many years..

[Southampton Gull]

32? How do you work that out?

[Awayday]

32? How do you work that out?

1 x 8 = 8
2 x 8 = 16
3 x 8 = 32

I taught him everything he knows

[Awayday]

Also

Torquay have to play Southend and Oxford
Southend have to play Oxford and Cheltenham
Oxford have to play Gillingham

There are a few 6 point games in that list above and you left off Gillingham who are still contenders.

Realistically there is still a chance we can fall out of the play offs if we are not careful.

Personally the next 2 weekends are crucial, home to Port Vale and then away to Barnet. If we can take 6 points from them 2 then it gives us a good chance for the remaining games.

[Gullscorer]

I learnt arithmetic at school..!! Corrected now.. =D

[CP Gull]

:Oops: To finish with 87 points we would need to win 6 and lose 2 or win 5 and draw the other 3 - tough ask I reckon.

Personally I reckon we are capable of getting 82-84 points from the remaining fixtures, though whether that will be enough for automatic promotion this year remains to be seen. I can see us picking up 2 or 3 more wins on the road as Barnet, Wimbledon and Hereford all have poor home records - all in the bottom six based on home results alone:

http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D3/home.html

But ultimately it may well be what we do at home that makes the difference - Port Vale and Accrington Stanley represent decent opportunities to pick up maximum points but neither will be easy and in form Crewe and promotion chasing away day kings Southend who are better on the road than they are at home will be real tests for sure.

It will most likely go to the wire, as always .....

[Gullscorer]

Let me see now, 4 x 3 = 15, plus 2 x 1 = 3, that's er.. oh I give up..!! At least I can spel.

In theory (mathematically) any of the teams down to Burton could catch us. But if Gillingham do make the play-offs, I think it will be at the expense of Southend, or Cheltenham , or Crawley, rather than the Gulls.

Anyway, I know we'll be promoted. It's a near mathematical certainty.. I think..

[Wubble U]

Crawley seem to have a relatively easy run in, and with games in hand + Gary Alexander, they look a good bet to nick an automatic place

Same for Shrewsbury too - a nice looking run in on paper

Think we'll be needing more than the 82pts Ling and DiCanio reckon will achieve automatic promotion

[Awayday]

So let me get this right at the final whistle....

- If we have scored more goals than the other team it is a win and we get 3 points
- if we have the same number of goals that the other team it is a draw and we get 1 point
- if we score less goals than the other team we lose and we get 0 points

Therefore, mathmatically, it would benefit us to get as many "wins" as we can as we will get more points for doing so?
If I am not mistaken, it works the other way, if the teams around us have more "wins" they get more points, therefore our total points may end up less than theirs?

Oh this football scoring system is very complicated, no wonder the maths of it are difficult to calculate.

:P

[portugull]

Last night I had reviewed the remaining games for the top 7 excluding Swindon Town before I read this thread.

After reviewing the remaining games on paper Shrewsbury have the best chance as they do not meet any team currently in the top 8. Furthermore they have a fantastic home record.

I think they will take a minimum of 18 points from the remaining 27 giving them 86 and second place.

The battle for the remaining automatic place is between United and Crawley. We meet Southend, Oxford and Crewe in the top 8. Crawley meet only Crewe in the top 8. Of their 10 remaining games 5 are against teams in the bottom third and my conclusion is we will both end up on 84 points and it will be decided by goal difference. I reckon Southend will come 5th, Oxford 6th and Crewe 7th. I dont see Cheltenham and Gillingham in the playoffs.

All will be revealed on May 5th!

[Gullscorer]

That defeat at Swindon may prove to be a blessing in disguise for the Gulls during the final run in. It should have stopped any complacency which might have crept in if they had drawn or won, and maintained their focus and determination for the last eight games.

After I made my initial post I realised that I'd forgotten how poor Cheltenham's form had become and how good Crewe's is at present. There'll be a few more twists and turns in the saga yet.. Could all go down to the last game..

[AlexGulls]

I think we'll be in the Playoffs. I cant see Crawley losing there games in hand (Bradford and Northampton) and they have a straight forward run in aswell looking at those fixtures I cant see them dropping many points. Shrewsbury have a game in hand aswell against Port Vale on Tuesday night at home and the only thing that is there downfall is there away form.

Everyone seems to be strengthening aswell. Southend have signed Freddy Eastwood today....

[lucy6lucy]

Isnt it great. What great times being a Gulls supporter. My theory is simple, forget about the rest concentrate on our game. I personally would take play-offs now(thats not saying we cant finish in 3rd, as Shrewsbury will finish 2nd). Crawley on paper have an easy run-in but is playing lower sides a good thing at this time of year, they are either fighting for their lives staying up or looking to play for a new contract. As for the playoffs, yes they are a lottery but there is always one team that goes into in real good form. Something tells me that the playoff places will comprise of Torquay(sorry), Southend, Oxford and CREWE. But if we beat Crewe at Plainmoor then it will be Cheltenham in the playoffs instead of Crewe.

[AustrianAndyGull]

I think we are forgetting one thing folks. THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF FOOTBALL. We assume we will beat Port Vale, Accy, Barnet, Hereford and have tricky games v Crewe, Southend and Oxford. That may very well turn out to be the case; however, we could just as easily get beat by Vale and Barnet then hammer Oxford away. Likewise, the other teams at the top WILL drop points against teams well below them between now and the end of the season and so using the predictor thingy is pretty much useless. It's basically in the lap of the Gods now and a couple of defeats or draws on the spin for any of the top 6 ( barring Swindon ) could see their automatic aspirations vanish almost in the blink of an eye. It really is soil yourself time and that's just us the fans. Just think how much pressure the players are under. All we can do is the old cliche and take each game as it comes.

[numpte]

Next 3 games are key for me, take 6 points and we'd be on 75 with 5 to play.

Still reckon with a few 6 pointers in there and those unpredictable end of season games v teams scrapping (Torquay 5 v Rochdale 0) ,82-83 will be enough.

So assuming 6 from 3, then need 7 from 5.

Easy.