The Drama of the next 49 Days in the NLS

portugull · Post by **portugull** » 23 Mar 2025, 13:08

These are the plus points that I hope give us an advantage over the final 6 games ( 7 for Worthing)

After our visit to Aveley next Saturday 23rd in Table we have 3 Home games in a row Chesham 21st, Slough 12th and Weymouth 16th.

Worthing have 3 huge games via Truro (H) Eastbourne (A) and Dorking (H).

4 of Truros' last 6 are away from Home plus Torquay at Home on Good Friday 18th April.

In the Form Table we are 2nd on goal difference to Eastbourne whereas Dorking have slipped to 8th and Boreham Wood to 11th.

I feel the biggest Match of many is Eastbourne at Home to Worthing on Good Friday.

My prediction is Eastbourne 89, Torquay 88, Worthing 88. Worthing have the worst goal difference.

Keithsson · Post by **Keithsson** » 23 Mar 2025, 14:31

By far the worst GD portugull... and arguably the worst run-in too.

That's why I'll be writing off Worthing for automatic promotion if we don't beat Hornchurch on Tuesday... GD means we can't afford to be level on points with anyone at the end, so a points buffer is needed now because we won't win all three of those six pointers. Yesterday was a massive kick in the spuds, another will be fatal.

Your run-in actually looks one of the better...

Aveley will be tough because they're in full on 'every game is a must win' territory, we so nearly lost that one. Less tough is Chesham though, although they won't be mathematically safe by then. But both of those will park the bus and hump it long hoping for a miracle... we've seen it, the default action of these teams is to make the playing of football nigh on impossible*

When you get to Slough though they 'should' be safe, and Weymouth (23rd, not 16th) will likely have already been relegated by then. Their motivation to throw bodies on the line will have reduced.

I'm not doing numbers, there's far too many variables, but unless we get straight back on the horse (and Hornchurch is a truly horrible horse!) I see the Champions as being a three horse race between Truro, Eastbourne and yourselves... whichever makes the best dip for the line form wise will take the prize. I agree that Dorking and Boreham Wood have already shot their bolt.

*as an example of this one of the ground staff yesterday admitted they put were under strict instructions not to de-divot Welling's pitch after their last home game and to do absolutely nothing to prepare it ahead of our game. Not complaining, it's their house so it's their rules, but it just shows what football playing teams like ours are up against at this time of the season.

Sporty60 · Post by **Sporty60** » 25 Mar 2025, 16:59

Good graphic here. Apologies if it's been posted elsewhere.

portugull · Post by **portugull** » 25 Mar 2025, 20:41

At HALF TIME HORNCHURCH 1 WORTHING 0.

Brixham63 · Post by **Brixham63** » 25 Mar 2025, 21:30

its the hope that gets you......

Keithsson · Post by **Keithsson** » 25 Mar 2025, 21:48

As I said previously, that's us out of title contention. You can't lose to two sluggers like Welling and Hornchurch and have any expectation of winning enough points in a run-in like that to hold off three chasing teams.

Ho hum

gullsgullsgulls · Post by **gullsgullsgulls** » 25 Mar 2025, 21:51

Keithsson wrote: 25 Mar 2025, 21:48 As I said previously, that's us out of title contention. You can't lose to two sluggers like Welling and Hornchurch and have any expectation of winning enough points in a run-in like that to hold off three chasing teams.

Ho hum

The number of twists and turns this season, it would seem eminently feasible for Worthing to drop 6 easier points then string a winning run to take the title - it’s still yours to lose.

DVNGull · Post by **DVNGull** » 25 Mar 2025, 21:52

Glad that the usual NLS bottlers don't fancy going up, one less team to worry about.

Gull1899 · Post by **Gull1899** » 25 Mar 2025, 22:08

Well, didnt expect these last results from Worthing, which means its an exciting last few games now & can finish anywhere from 1st-7th probably. Truro look very strong right now, think they may do it

TUFC67 · Post by **TUFC67** » 25 Mar 2025, 22:12

Win, or avoid a loss at Truro and anything is possible.

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 25 Mar 2025, 22:36

Worthing didn’t look like a team who were top of the league tonight.
More possession but not sure the Hornchurch keeper had to make a save.
Never expected Worthing to lose to Welling and Hornchurch. Thought we were battling for play off places but not the league is wide open.

Minneapolisgull · Post by **Minneapolisgull** » 26 Mar 2025, 03:26

The lNLS is utter chaos. Worthing could have pulled away a little but let's be honest who saw two losses in a row
That is not good run of form. We must fancy ourselves but knowing torquay watch us fumble at Averly. The truro v torquay might be a title decider... already see its a sellout. The run in is going to be epic.

Keithsson · Post by **Keithsson** » 26 Mar 2025, 07:17

standupsitdown wrote: 25 Mar 2025, 22:36 Worthing didn’t look like a team who were top of the league tonight.
More possession but not sure the Hornchurch keeper had to make a save.
Never expected Worthing to lose to Welling and Hornchurch. Thought we were battling for play off places but not the league is wide open.

Wasn't there but not surprised. Turning possession into 'possession with a purpose' (chances & goals) has been an issue all season, it's why our GD is so much lower than the pack.

For me though these last two games were lost by mindset. Aggy has been spot on in his interviews all season, brutality honest, not afraid to call a spade a spade and call people out if required.

But since regaining top spot you can spot the gear change, you can see the join into 'kidology'. The comment that did it for me was 'the pressure is all on the chasing pack, not us'. The PMI's have been all about excuses and nothing but praise for our players. Positives?, we've just lost to Welling and Hornchurch

Think it was a mis-step in an otherwise brilliant debut season for him. We were in proper beast mode against Hemel and that casual, relaxed, it's all about them not us stuff has bled into performances.

Because it's not easier to lead than chase. When you chase you have a target to chase, when you lead you ARE the target!!

Beast mode needed to stay engaged, instead 'kitten playing with a ball of string' mode was allowed to be switched to.

So good luck in the race for the top, we don't come back from this. If you do hit top though, remember the lesson and stay driven to the line. Be the tortoise not the hare

North Curry House · Post by **North Curry House** » 26 Mar 2025, 09:05

Other than Truro on Good Friday, all our remaining fixtures are against lower league sides. As we know they have caused us most concern this season. However we will never have a better chance of winning this tinpot league than NOW.

Three points at Aveley are a must.....and if we can follow that up with a win against Chesham the following week, we should be top or thereabouts.

We need a lead over Truro before we play them on Good Friday.

Good luck everyone.
COYY.

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 26 Mar 2025, 10:28

Truro have Chelmsford, Worthing & Hornchurch away before play them.
Win our three games and I think we'll be above them come Good Friday.
Draw at Truro and win our other five games (a tall order I know) and I think we'd win the league.

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