7 more wins for automatic promotion?

[gulltom]

Swindon's charasmatic manager Paolo Di Canio reckons that his team need "5 more wins to secure automatic promotion" http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17270393" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

On the basis we are 8 points behind them this means we will theoretically need 7 more wins or 21 points from 12 games to secure a place in league 1 next season.

Looking at our remaining fixtures

Bristol Rovers - Home
Rotherham - Away
Burton Albion - Away
Swindon - Away
Port Vale - Home
Barnet - Away
Accrington - Home
Oxford - Away
Southend - ~Home
Wimbledon - Away
Crewe - Home
Hereford - Away

Do you think this is achievable?

[stefano]

Yes

[numpte]

Apart from Swindon, they are all much of a muchness. Didn't we go up with 77pts at Sarfend meaning 6 more wins with a couple of draws thrown in.

[gullsflyinghigh]

Touch and go I think. Not getting too excited just yet although will be going barmy if we do it.

[RussianGull]

If we look like we're going up on last match I'll fly back from Yaroslavl, likewise if we make playoffs, I'll be there for the final. Coyy!

[bobby93]

Of course it's possible. On our day we are capable of beating anyone in this league (although apparently not Bradford or Gillingham).

I think our success this season has in a lot of ways been down to taking each game as it comes, doing everything we can to win and seeing where we end up. No point ballsing that up by getting excited and changing tact now. Slow and steady wins the race.

[CP Gull]

Looking at our remaining fixtures
Aldershot - Home
Bristol Rovers - Home
Rotherham - Away
Burton Albion - Away
Swindon - Away
Port Vale - Home
Barnet - Away
Accrington - Home
Oxford - Away
Southend - home
Wimbledon - Away
Crewe - Home
Hereford - Away

Do you think this is achievable?

You forgot Southend at home.

Looking at it again, the run in isn't perhaps as difficult as I seemed to think it was. We have to face three teams currently in the top seven (Swindon, Southend and Oxford) and only two teams currently in the bottom six (Barnet and Hereford) and of those surely the odds are that Hereford's fate will more than likely than not have been decided by the time we come to face them and personally I think Barnet will stay up. As it stands I can't see beyond the teams currently occupying the bottom six places for the two relegation spots as in my opinion Bradford and AFC Wimbledon will be safe.

What I do see is potentially a number of fixtures against teams who may well end up with very little to play for which is no bad thing in my eyes. Of course, I'm sure fans of Aldershot, Crewe and Rotherham still fancy their (outside) chances of the play offs now - but will some of them still do by the time we come to play them or will they have settled for mid table ? As for the rest, I think it's already pretty safe to say that the likes of Bristol Rovers, Burton Albion, Accrington and Port Vale (when they get their 10 point deduction for going into administration) will all be in League 2 next season and as I say I think AFC Wimbledon will be well clear by the time we come to play them.

All in all, I don't think our run in is too bad, but one thing that is important is that we get a decent return from our next two home games (i.e. 4 points minimum) so as to keep the momentum going before we head off for those three tough away games (Rotherham, Burton and Swindon) which may well decide our season, well at least in terms of our chances of automatic promotion.

[AustrianAndyGull]

I don't go along with the theory that teams are more beatable if their season has fizzled out and they have nothing to play for CP. We needed a good performance against Rotherham away on the last day of last season remember and played shite whilst Rotherham had nothing to play for and stuffed us 3-1. I can see the reasoning behind it but anything can happen in a game of footy no matter what is at stake.

I think 8 wins against the teams left to play is achieveable but i don't think we'll get them sadly. Take our last three games as an example. We won the game we least expected to and lost the one most likely to win so NOTHING is taken for granted in this league and i'm certainly not going to say,' oh we'll get a win against them, a draw there and maybe a loss there' because we can't predict. I fancy us to lose on saturday and lose at Swindon but beat Aldershot, Burton and Rotherham but it probably won't pan out like that. All we can do is trust in Martin and the lads to put in the performances necessary which for the most part this season they have done admirably and we should be thereabouts on merit come the end. There are going to be plenty of twists and turns along the way so we should enjoy it.

Tonights game is tricky and Aldershot are in record breaking form but at the end of the day i think they have lost 6 away and drawn one so there is a strong possibility that we will win. I think Swindon are going up as clear champions and it's a scrap between us and the other 4. Crawley have 2 games in hand which is a worry but they've still got to win them. To simply be in this position is a miracle.

[stefano]

Crawley have 2 games in hand which is a worry but they've still got to win them. To simply be in this position is a miracle.

Only one game in hand now and two points behind.

[Colorado Gull]

Yes we can do it, as bobby93 said, on our day we can beat anyone. We have to keep going and do the things we have been doing, which is take each game as it comes and then hopefully we will keep fighting for automatic promotion.

[AustrianAndyGull]

Only one game in hand now and two points behind.

Cheers Stefano, missed that!

[kingsgull]

till tonight that is then its back to 2 in hand...thats why its vital we win tonight to keep the pressure up...

[Trojan 67]

My reckoning on this is 75+ points to qualify for the play-offs and 85+ points for automatic promotion.

What is for sure is the 7th placed team will need a lot more than the 68pts that the team of last season finished with.

[Glostergull]

Touch and go I think. Not getting too excited just yet although will be going barmy if we do it.

No good for me. Everyone reckons I am already Barmy

[Glostergull]

I think we should rename this thread 7 more wins for automatic promotion. Wow what an amazing season