Will we stay up?

[Mr Tea808]

Southampton Gull, that would be myself, I stated that Aldershot were safe, but I'm telling you pal, I'm no idiot, we are all deep down armchair managers, none of us have managed,I made a prediction on this forum, that's about the size of it, All I'd say is this, as of right now, would you rather be in our position or Aldershots?, With their fixtures, points on the board etc, I know that dosent make them safe, but I think they'll be ok.

[standupsitdown]

Look at Aldershots fixtures. Home games against Yeovil, Scunthorpe and Altrincham. They also play York. They would have to completely capitulate for us to have any chance of catching them. We’re done for and let’s be honest we deserve to go down over the course of the season.

If they win those three home games (and lose to Eastleigh away) that takes them to 52 points plus whatever they get at York.
If they lose at York to overtake that we'd need five wins and a draw.
If they drew at York we'd need six wins.
If they won at York then we couldn't catch them.

If York beat Halifax but lose at Chesterfield & Notts Co (but County may have nothing to play for last game of the season) and of course to us, they would have 49 points plus what they get from the Aldershot game. If York win both they and Aldershot may finish on 52 - so we need five wins and a draw.
If Aldershot win or its a draw then York may finish on 49 or 50. Perhaps 51 with at point v Chesterfield or Notts Co.

Five wins and a draw and I think we'll stay up.
Four wins and a draw we'd have a chance. (Obviously five wins, or four wins and two draws increases that chance)
Any less and I can't see us overtaking two teams.

[portugull]

Gateshead 3 nil up now.

Only just seen York won 1 nil last night so we really need a total miracle like 5 wins and a draw with Wrexham.

[standupsitdown]

Gateshead 3 nil up now.

Only just seen York won 1 nil last night so we really need a total miracle like 5 wins and a draw with Wrexham.

We can beat Wrexham.
They’ll have already won the league. Will be like us at Chippenham after we’d won the NLS.
Might need to settle for draw at Chesterfield.

[madgull]

I feel like York are our only way out, as we've got the chance for an effective six-point swing on them, and they have Notts Co on the Final day of the season. We also both play Chesterfield.

Gateshead have the games, Aldershot the run-in.

If we can win our game in hand and beat York, that puts us only one point behind. Then we need to match their other results, and hope to better them against Chesterfield and/or the big two on the Final day.

A long shot, and much easier said than done, but it feels there ready to be written as yet another TUFC Trademark Great Escape.

[Southampton Gull]

Southampton Gull, that would be myself, I stated that Aldershot were safe, but I'm telling you pal, I'm no idiot, we are all deep down armchair managers, none of us have managed,I made a prediction on this forum, that's about the size of it, All I'd say is this, as of right now, would you rather be in our position or Aldershots?, With their fixtures, points on the board etc, I know that dosent make them safe, but I think they'll be ok.

I just dislike tea

I don't necessarily disagree with you but without remembering exactly what you said my memory tells me you said something ridiculous 'at that time'. Anyway, apologies for labelling you an idiot, it's been a tough time for me personally of late as well as on the football front. Fat lady isn't singing just yet......

[Admiral]

Are we hoping Yeovil beat Aldershot on Friday? York have played a game more, and I expect them to lose at chesterfield. Win against Eastleigh and that’s all we can do!

Gulls

[brucie]

Yeovil wont beat anyone - they are down for certain.

After watching then on Saturday they are miles worse than us. Always going to lose at Gateshead tonight

[Mr Tea808]

Southampton Gull , fair play to you and point taken.At the end of the day, we need to just play our games, and see where that takes us, Eastleigh don't draw many, they'll probably be thinking we need to win, they've won 19, not many away mind you, I think it'll be an open game, but we definitely need to score 1st, we need to get Infront.

[Forest gull]

Yeovil wont beat anyone - they are down for certain.

After watching then on Saturday they are miles worse than us. Always going to lose at Gateshead tonight

Yeovil have more points than us so what does that make our survival chances?

[Stickingitin]

Back in January 7th I posted this...

"Interesting reading...
Notts Co 25 players 5 strikers
Wrexham 35 players 8 strikers
Chesterfield 28 players 5 strikers
Woking 24 Players 6 Strikers
Barnet 25 players 5 Strikers
Southend 30 Players 7 Strikers
Wealdstone 19 players 5 Strikers
Dag & Red 27 Players 5 Strikers
Eastliegh 24 Players 3 Strikers
Bromley 18 Players 5 Strikers
Solihull M 26 Players 6 Strikers
Altrincham 23 Players 5 Strikers
Borham W 23 Players 5 Strikers
York City 28 Players 5 Strikers
FC Halifax 22 Players 9 Strikers
Dorking W 26 Players 5 Strikers
Maidenhead 24 Players 4 Strikers
Yeovil T 16 Players 3 Strikers
Aldershot 23 Players 3 Strikers
Oldham Ath 36 Players 7 Strikers
Gateshead 27 Players 7 Strikers
TUFC 21 Players 3 Strikers
Maidstone 25 Players 6 Strikers
Scunthorpe Utd 26 Players 4 Strikers

My prediction based on these facts are that TUFC, Scunthorpe, Aldershot and Yeovil will go down unless things change at Plainmoor. Time to get the cheque book out Osbourne."

We are now at a squad of 22 players with four strikers and starting to put a winning run together. The only weakness I can see is that we are short of outright wingers, a couple of injuries and that winning formation is out the window and we won't be able to compete.
I would suggest the club gets cover in otherwise they are gambling and gamblers lose.
It is as I predicted between these four clubs as to who stays up. Maidstone capitulated but this prediction still holds true.

[Wolborough]

I suspect we are doomed (sadly), despite a mini revival. It is just too late now to secure survival simply because there are only a few games left. We will probably just fail to grasp a position of safety as those teams already above us will still pick up points before the season closes thus maintaining a buffer zone.

[Midlandgull]

All we can do is win our games and then see what happens after that. Given the recent form of Aldershot, I'd be surprised if they won all of their home games, but you never know.

One game at a time, let's go for it v Eastleigh.

[standupsitdown]

Are we hoping Yeovil beat Aldershot on Friday? York have played a game more, and I expect them to lose at chesterfield. Win against Eastleigh and that’s all we can do!

Gulls

Yes.
We should catch Yeovil if we get the wins needed to overtake Aldershot or York.

I'd forgotten that Aldershot's game at Wealdstone was postponed so that still has to be arranged.

[standupsitdown]

I’ve had yet another look –

York & Aldershot are the most likely to catch (to do that we’d almost certainly finish above Yeovil.). Dorking, Gateshead & Halifax are very outside chance of catching now.

Remaining fixtures –

Aldershot:

Yeovil H
Eastleigh A
Scunthorpe H
York A
Wealdstone A (TBA)
Altringham H

York:

Chesterfield A
Halifax H
Torquay A
Aldershot H
Notts Co A

Estimated points before last day excluding York v Aldershot

Aldershot – beat Yeovil & Scunthorpe. Lose to Eastleigh & draw at Wealdstone.
50 points
If lose at York still likely to beat Altringham so finish on 53 points if no slip up.

York – beat Halifax, lose to Torquay & Chesterfield.
46 points
If beat Aldershot 49 points plus what they get from Notts Co last day.

Torquay – if we beat Eastleigh, Maidenhead, York & Altringham but lose at Chesterfield we’d have 49 points going into the last game.

We’d then have a chance of overtaking York but may need to better their result v Notts Co.
To overtake Aldershot we’d probably need them to fail to beat Altringham (who’d have nothing to play for).

To catch Aldershot we’ll probably need five wins and them to fail to win one of their relatively easy home games.

York are the better bet and if we win four of the next five games we may go into the last game, both playing the top two whose positions are already decided, with us needing a better result than York.