The Drama of the next 49 Days in the NLS

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 19 Apr 2025, 19:54

I know no one seems to be able to hold on to top place but Worthing & Truro have their difficult games on Monday so I think whoever is top on Monday evening will win the league.

Keithsson · Post by **Keithsson** » 19 Apr 2025, 21:06

standupsitdown wrote: 19 Apr 2025, 19:54 I know no one seems to be able to hold on to top place but Worthing & Truro have their difficult games on Monday so I think whoever is top on Monday evening will win the league.

I think that's a very fair shout.

Possible exceptions for Worthing and Eastbourne though if the play-off and relegation issues for Weston and Enfield respectively haven't been resolved on Monday too.

It'd be a pretty unique set of results on Monday for 'Boro to be top, but not entirely impossible (Worthing v Dorking draw, Truro and yourselves to not win). But having seen 'Boro at home just yesterday I'd fancy Weston to get at least a draw there if they haven't lost out on 7th place already.

As for us, the challenge Enfield pose on the last day entirely depends on Monday too. Secure safety and for them it's one last chilled run out before they hit the beach. Still need something though and their very good form of late won't be easy to beat at all.

We'll certainly have a very good idea who the Champions are likely to be in less than 42 hours time. But even then, it'd be entirely in keeping with this fascinatingly random at times season if things, even then, go Pete Tong for someone.

It's less about form now than big game experience and nouse. It's so tight that defeats now are almost fatal, these last three games are pretty much a play-off competition... QF Friday, SF Monday, Final Saturday.

desperado · Post by **desperado** » 20 Apr 2025, 07:01

Two wins guarantee us at least a home semi final and maybe home final but is that an advantage ? You would think so with a big crowd behind us but our away form seems better lately, maybe more tense and pressure on us at home.
Didn't do last seasons home semi finalists much good,
The 5th and 6th teams got promoted Braintree and Boston
Despite that I'd rather be at home and have one less game !

DerekDawkinsJnr · Post by **DerekDawkinsJnr** » 20 Apr 2025, 08:51

Can't help but think of the capitulation at Chelmsford at the end of February. I know all the teams at the top probably had a similar experience, but those two late goals cost us dearly. A draw would at least have made us top now. That's against a team who were destined for mid table even back in February.

I suppose my point here is that slip ups happen, and could well happen next weekend........ it ain't over till it's over....

Post by **Southampton Gull** » 20 Apr 2025, 09:16

It would be just like us to hammer Weymouth then go to Hemel and lose on the final day but having never predicted a loss for us before the last few games (reverse psychology) I'm going to continue doing so in hope that it works. To come out Champions now would just seal a magical transformation at the club. Fingers crossed!!

Admiral · Post by **Admiral** » 20 Apr 2025, 09:17

DerekDawkinsJnr wrote: 20 Apr 2025, 08:51 Can't help but think of the capitulation at Chelmsford at the end of February. I know all the teams at the top probably had a similar experience, but those two late goals cost us dearly. A draw would at least have made us top now. That's against a team who were destined for mid table even back in February.

I suppose my point here is that slip ups happen, and could well happen next weekend........ it ain't over till it's over....

You could say the same for Chesham, however that’s football and we’ve won a lot of games late too.

DerekDawkinsJnr · Post by **DerekDawkinsJnr** » 21 Apr 2025, 04:31

I suspect that we're all studying the various possible outcomes match by match and what it means for the table at the end of the season. I also like to see what the market says about likelihoods on this.

As it stands today, the bookies have it as follows re: league winner:

Worthing 7/4
Torquay 5/2
Truro 10/3
Dorking 9/1
Eastbourne 12/1

We've definitely played ourselves into contention. COYY!

gullsgullsgulls · Post by **gullsgullsgulls** » 21 Apr 2025, 05:17

Admiral wrote: 20 Apr 2025, 09:17 You could say the same for Chesham, however that’s football and we’ve won a lot of games late too.

Exactly this. I too have been guilty of bemoaning recently lost ‘easier’ points given how close it has become.

I console myself by considering how many points we have been lucky to pick up along the way, which more than balances this out. Chesham away way back in August was a good example with a 96th minute winner against the run of play - I wondered at the time how important those two points could become, and the answer is very!

Keithsson · Post by **Keithsson** » 21 Apr 2025, 16:19

You'll be delighted to discover Dorking's equaliser came from a Lucas Covolan spill

Any other time of the season and today was a thoroughly entertaining head to head between two good sides going full throttle. You'd be walking away entertained and happy with a point.

Play-offs for us, good luck

njgull · Post by **njgull** » 21 Apr 2025, 16:41

If nothing else results today at least mean that with a win on Saturday we at worst finish second, meaning our playoff path would be two home games. Lose Saturday and we could drop as far as sixth, making our playoff path three road games.

Have to win Saturday. If we do and St. Alban's does us a favor, wonderful. More likely though it's a win on Saturday which is needed to set us up for a good chance at playoff success.

Dilmond · Post by **Dilmond** » 21 Apr 2025, 16:47

With a little bit of foresight (don't worry, I didn't see it either) what is happening now was pretty much destined to take place!

If you're still a bit lost - Torquay & Truro.

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 21 Apr 2025, 16:48

Good news is that St Albans won so still have a chance to stay up if they win or draw at Truro.
That balances us being away and against a better team than Truro have to play.
We must win or won't get good fixtures in the play offs, but have to hope Truro slip up. Such a shame we didn't score a couple more today - or if Cody Cooke and scored that good chance near the end at Truro etc etc

Admiral · Post by **Admiral** » 21 Apr 2025, 21:09

If Truro win 2-1 and we win 3-0, GD and goals scored will be equal. Imagine winning the league on head to head record!

Post by **Southampton Gull** » 21 Apr 2025, 21:38

We'll just do it the hard way as always BUT I'm sure the accountant would be rubbing his hands at the thought of two more bumper home crowds.

Post by **Louis** » 21 Apr 2025, 21:41

Forgive me for ChatGPTing here but I thought this view would be useful…

Final Day Fixtures
• Truro City vs. St Albans City (home)
• Torquay United vs. Hemel Hempstead Town (away)
• Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing (home)
• Boreham Wood vs. Maidstone United (home)
• Dorking Wanderers vs. Weston-super-Mare (away)

Possible Outcomes for Torquay United
1. Torquay Win, Truro Draw or Lose: Torquay would finish with 89 points. If Truro draws, they reach 87 points; if they lose, they remain at 86. In both scenarios, Torquay would surpass Truro and potentially win the title, depending on other results.
2. Torquay Win, Truro Win: Both teams would end with 89 points. The title would then be decided by goal difference. Torquay would need to win by at least two more goals than Truro to overtake them. For example, if Truro wins 1-0, Torquay would need a 3-0 victory to claim the title.
3. Torquay Draw, Truro Lose: Torquay would have 87 points; Truro would stay at 86. Torquay would win the league.
4. Torquay Draw, Truro Draw: Torquay would have 87 points; Truro would have 87. Goal difference would determine the champion. Torquay would need to ensure their goal difference surpasses Truro’s.
5. Torquay Lose: Torquay would remain at 86 points. If Truro also loses, both stay at 86, and goal difference decides the title. If Eastbourne Borough or Worthing win their match, they could leapfrog both teams to win the league.

Additional Considerations
• Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing: This match is crucial. The winner could potentially overtake both Truro and Torquay if they fail to win. A draw would likely keep both behind, unless Truro and Torquay both lose.
• Boreham Wood and Dorking Wanderers: Both teams are on 83 points. With significant goal differences (+36 and +33, respectively), a win combined with losses from the top teams could see them clinch the title.

Summary

Torquay United must aim for a decisive win against Hemel Hempstead Town and hope that Truro City either draws or loses to St Albans City. The outcome of the Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing match is also pivotal, as the winner could challenge for the title if Truro and Torquay falter.

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