The Drama of the next 49 Days in the NLS

njgull · Post by **njgull** » 21 Apr 2025, 23:57

ChatGPT doesn't appear to be very good at math. I think my personal favorite is our goal difference somehow surpassing Truro's in the event both we and Truro draw.

Having said that, if ChatGPT declares us champions I say we run with it.

DerekDawkinsJnr · Post by **DerekDawkinsJnr** » 22 Apr 2025, 00:16

Thanks Louis for the chat GPT version of the permutations. As usual, I'll take a look at the market. Here's how the bookies have it for league winners;

Truro 1/2
Torquay 2/1
Eastbourne 12/1
Worthing 25/1

Covolan's error really did cost Worthing dearly....

gullsgullsgulls · Post by **gullsgullsgulls** » 22 Apr 2025, 06:24

ChatGPT has invented most of those fixtures!

Eastbourne home against Weston, Dorking home at Chesham, Boreham Wood away at Tonbridge and Worthing away at Enfield.

Only Enfield have a reason to go the extra mile with the risk of relegation hanging over them.

Big question for PW is whether to aim for a 1-goal win and hope Truro slip, thus banking second spot with a shot at the title, or going all out for a GD++ win but risking the 3 points entirely which could land us in sixth!

Taelee73 · Post by **Taelee73** » 22 Apr 2025, 07:05

Good points about how we approach the last match.

Wotton on camera has been really relaxed the last few weeks, we have obviously far surpassed his and the owner’s expectations for the season already. My opinion is that reaching the Playoffs would have been the objective in his first season here, and whatever happens on Saturday he has achieved that. As such, we can go for the title and then see what happens,I’d rather we went for it, even if it means we ended up with away games in the Playoffs.

Anyhow, I throughly enjoyed the match against Weymouth, we played some good stuff and the atmosphere, especially in the first half hour was fantastic.

DerekDawkinsJnr · Post by **DerekDawkinsJnr** » 23 Apr 2025, 02:49

Yes. No point in going one nil up and parking the bus. certainly need to go for it.

There may though be a point in the second half when it's clear that it's beyond reach? Should we take the foot off the gas in such case?

It will be worth watching how Enfield and Salisbury are getting on as well, since they're the clubs that st Alban's can catch if they win. Worthing can do us a favour here as they play Enfield.

Going to be a fascinating afternoon.

Minneapolisgull · Post by **Minneapolisgull** » 23 Apr 2025, 03:12

Great post! Explaining the scenarios Think this is going to be one of those afternoons that positions change constantly! Matty Jay to score a last minute goal that sends up as champions on goal difference!

Louis wrote: 21 Apr 2025, 21:41 Forgive me for ChatGPTing here but I thought this view would be useful…

Final Day Fixtures
• Truro City vs. St Albans City (home)
• Torquay United vs. Hemel Hempstead Town (away)
• Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing (home)
• Boreham Wood vs. Maidstone United (home)
• Dorking Wanderers vs. Weston-super-Mare (away)

Possible Outcomes for Torquay United
1. Torquay Win, Truro Draw or Lose: Torquay would finish with 89 points. If Truro draws, they reach 87 points; if they lose, they remain at 86. In both scenarios, Torquay would surpass Truro and potentially win the title, depending on other results.
2. Torquay Win, Truro Win: Both teams would end with 89 points. The title would then be decided by goal difference. Torquay would need to win by at least two more goals than Truro to overtake them. For example, if Truro wins 1-0, Torquay would need a 3-0 victory to claim the title.
3. Torquay Draw, Truro Lose: Torquay would have 87 points; Truro would stay at 86. Torquay would win the league.
4. Torquay Draw, Truro Draw: Torquay would have 87 points; Truro would have 87. Goal difference would determine the champion. Torquay would need to ensure their goal difference surpasses Truro’s.
5. Torquay Lose: Torquay would remain at 86 points. If Truro also loses, both stay at 86, and goal difference decides the title. If Eastbourne Borough or Worthing win their match, they could leapfrog both teams to win the league.

Additional Considerations
• Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing: This match is crucial. The winner could potentially overtake both Truro and Torquay if they fail to win. A draw would likely keep both behind, unless Truro and Torquay both lose.
• Boreham Wood and Dorking Wanderers: Both teams are on 83 points. With significant goal differences (+36 and +33, respectively), a win combined with losses from the top teams could see them clinch the title.

Summary

Torquay United must aim for a decisive win against Hemel Hempstead Town and hope that Truro City either draws or loses to St Albans City. The outcome of the Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing match is also pivotal, as the winner could challenge for the title if Truro and Torquay falter.

gullsgullsgulls · Post by **gullsgullsgulls** » 23 Apr 2025, 06:10

Minneapolisgull wrote: 23 Apr 2025, 03:12 Great post! Explaining the scenarios Think this is going to be one of those afternoons that positions change constantly! Matty Jay to score a last minute goal that sends up as champions on goal difference!

I wouldn’t pay any heed to this analysis from ChatGPT. Every single one of the 5 ‘potential outcomes’ is either flatly incorrect or misses key nuances!

TUFC67 · Post by **TUFC67** » 23 Apr 2025, 08:44

Louis wrote: 21 Apr 2025, 21:41 Forgive me for ChatGPTing here but I thought this view would be useful…

Final Day Fixtures
• Truro City vs. St Albans City (home)
• Torquay United vs. Hemel Hempstead Town (away)
• Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing (home)
• Boreham Wood vs. Maidstone United (home)
• Dorking Wanderers vs. Weston-super-Mare (away)

Possible Outcomes for Torquay United
1. Torquay Win, Truro Draw or Lose: Torquay would finish with 89 points. If Truro draws, they reach 87 points; if they lose, they remain at 86. In both scenarios, Torquay would surpass Truro and potentially win the title, depending on other results.
2. Torquay Win, Truro Win: Both teams would end with 89 points. The title would then be decided by goal difference. Torquay would need to win by at least two more goals than Truro to overtake them. For example, if Truro wins 1-0, Torquay would need a 3-0 victory to claim the title.
3. Torquay Draw, Truro Lose: Torquay would have 87 points; Truro would stay at 86. Torquay would win the league.
4. Torquay Draw, Truro Draw: Torquay would have 87 points; Truro would have 87. Goal difference would determine the champion. Torquay would need to ensure their goal difference surpasses Truro’s.
5. Torquay Lose: Torquay would remain at 86 points. If Truro also loses, both stay at 86, and goal difference decides the title. If Eastbourne Borough or Worthing win their match, they could leapfrog both teams to win the league.

Additional Considerations
• Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing: This match is crucial. The winner could potentially overtake both Truro and Torquay if they fail to win. A draw would likely keep both behind, unless Truro and Torquay both lose.
• Boreham Wood and Dorking Wanderers: Both teams are on 83 points. With significant goal differences (+36 and +33, respectively), a win combined with losses from the top teams could see them clinch the title.

Summary

Torquay United must aim for a decisive win against Hemel Hempstead Town and hope that Truro City either draws or loses to St Albans City. The outcome of the Eastbourne Borough vs. Worthing match is also pivotal, as the winner could challenge for the title if Truro and Torquay falter.

There are some errors here:
1. Eastbourne play WSM last day
2. Borehamwood are away at Tonbridge
3. Dorking are home to Chesham shitehouses
4. We possibly need to score 4-0 if Truro win 1-0, as they have more wins and we'd have same goal difference. Unsure if goals scored has primacy over matches won?
5. Para 4. in text above doesn't work if Truro and Torquay draw
6. If Truro and Torquay both lose, any of the 4 teams below can win overtake us and be crowned champions

Dilmond · Post by **Dilmond** » 23 Apr 2025, 09:26

Do we really want to make up the goal difference between us and Truro - let us look at the alternatives?

Losing out to Truro by one goal would be like a Torvill & Dean moment, a Pure Cosmic Alignment.

Alternatives: of course we still have to win this coming Saturday, but on doing so, that will put us top of the also rans and looking at another sold out Plainmoor. No season tickets for this one, just money in the bank for next season. On winning that game (

) that would mean yet another sold out home game, and the need to open another bank account to hold all the money!

That is my preference: Pure Cosmic Alignment, and " loads a money!"

TUFC67 · Post by **TUFC67** » 23 Apr 2025, 13:33

Dilmond wrote: 23 Apr 2025, 09:26 Do we really want to make up the goal difference between us and Truro - let us look at the alternatives?

Losing out to Truro by one goal would be like a Torvill & Dean moment, a Pure Cosmic Alignment.

Alternatives: of course we still have to win this coming Saturday, but on doing so, that will put us top of the also rans and looking at another sold out Plainmoor. No season tickets for this one, just money in the bank for next season. On winning that game () that would mean yet another sold out home game, and the need to open another bank account to hold all the money!

That is my preference: Pure Cosmic Alignment, and " loads a money!"

I have to agree. It was hinted at by the owners, too. Generates cash for the club and raises the profile significantly. If we finished 2nd, we'd be in the box seat for sure. No away team will relish playing us at home atm.
Dorking and Boreham Wood are 500/1 on being champions, currently. Worth a quid, that bet!

Abbotgull · Post by **Abbotgull** » 24 Apr 2025, 13:30

Dilmond wrote: 23 Apr 2025, 09:26 Do we really want to make up the goal difference between us and Truro - let us look at the alternatives?

Losing out to Truro by one goal would be like a Torvill & Dean moment, a Pure Cosmic Alignment.

Alternatives: of course we still have to win this coming Saturday, but on doing so, that will put us top of the also rans and looking at another sold out Plainmoor. No season tickets for this one, just money in the bank for next season. On winning that game () that would mean yet another sold out home game, and the need to open another bank account to hold all the money!

That is my preference: Pure Cosmic Alignment, and " loads a money!"

Bear in mind though that the gate money for the play offs is shared by both teams, we don't get to keep it all.

TerryTorq · Post by **TerryTorq** » 24 Apr 2025, 15:12

If Truro and Torquay lose, Eastbourne and Worthing both draw and Boreham Wood and Dorking win, all 6 teams will be on 86 points.

Phew....I am off to lie down in a darkened room.

FavGull · Post by **FavGull** » 24 Apr 2025, 17:26

TerryTorq wrote: 24 Apr 2025, 15:12 If Truro and Torquay lose, Eastbourne and Worthing both draw and Boreham Wood and Dorking win, all 6 teams will be on 86 points.

Phew....I am off to lie down in a darkened room.

And we'll be 4th and at home to Maidstone midweek (resting their players this weekend) - This should be avoided.

standupsitdown · Post by **standupsitdown** » 24 Apr 2025, 19:45

Last Day Permutations –

Beat Hemel & Truro fail to beat St Albans – Champions!!!!

Beat Hemel by two goals, scoring two more than Truro – Champions!!!!

Beat Hemel but don’t overtake Truro’s goal difference / goals scored – 2nd.
Home play off Saturday 3rd May. (almost certainly Boreham Wood or Dorking if they and Eastbourne all win?)

Assuming the four teams below us all win –

Draw with Hemel – 4th
Home play off Wednesday 30th (definitely Maidstone)

Lose to Hemel – 6th
Away play off Tuesday 29th (Dorking?)

If we finish below 3rd and win the midweek play off we’d be away against 3rd or 4th and away again in the final 17th / 18th unless a lower team beat 2nd / 3rd in semi final.

Obviously the teams below us may not all win but it’s not practical to look at all possible scenarios.

So whilst beating Truro on goal difference would be best, a win to secure 2nd place, or championship if Truro falter, must be the priority.

Dilmond · Post by **Dilmond** » 25 Apr 2025, 09:54

Abbotgull wrote: 24 Apr 2025, 13:30 Bear in mind though that the gate money for the play offs is shared by both teams, we don't get to keep it all.

What?

I thought an extra incentive of finishing second would be to first play at home, and as an added bonus, get to keep all the gate money.

Well if that's the case, sod the Torvill & Dean moments, because we can now go and enjoy ourselves knowing it doesn't matter where we finish!

In all likelihood I would be heading to HH, but my Border Collie has decided to get Cancer, and as he's far more intelligent than me sen (and most of the people I know) I thought I might stay with him to see if I can learn anything.

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